Practice 5: Use Scenario Analysis like Jacob Shapiro
“So, geopolitics really is more about defining possibilities and getting ready for any possibility so that if the crazy thing happens, ah, I’ve thought about it before. And I know what I’m going to do when that happens, rather than I’m going to perfectly be able to identify the scenario.”
Welcome Listeners,
Jacob Shapiro is a geopolitical scientist and by that, I mean not a geopolitical fan/lawyer/zealot in Tim Urban’s Ladder framework. He is a truth seeker, and the type of investor I want to fill my mind and time with, and by extension, your time and mind. We touch on geopolitics and everything from Mexico to Milei, Xi to Putin, and Macron to Lula. We discuss the importance of finding original news sources and using Google Translate to go deep on local news sources to avoid Western slants in English language news. We get deep into Jacob’s process as we get into how to read, what to read, how to prioritize with Jacob’s ranking system and software to work through what’s most important and what can wait until later. Jacob spends his dot connecting time synthesizing all this information into scenario analysis. If you don’t know, this is the practice of developing multiple plausible futures instead of single outcome focused prediction. This helps you prepare your portfolio for regime shifts in a ‘stay ready so you don’t have to get ready’ kind of way. This will be important in our new multi-polar world which Jacob can help you with as a VERY early adopter of that worldview. If you don’t listen to Jacob’s podcast or follow his work at Cognitive Investments, you are missing out, and I urge you to acquaint yourself.
Cheers,
Chase
“We don’t like to feel like we’re truly contrarian, and every good geopolitical call I’ve made that was correct, where I got the prediction right, was one where I was ridiculed, told I was crazy, like even had clients like hang up on me and call me back six months later.”
Listen Here | Watch Here
Show Notes:
The Transcript
This week’s episode features a future regular guest of Taylor Made Macro, Jacob Shapiro, from Cognitive Investments. Jacob is a true neutral geopolitical analyst that approaches the world and the markets with humility and back-breaking labor to arrive at his conclusions. Chase and Jacob discuss current events in global elections, the importance of finding original news sources, paying attention to news that seems strange, and implementing a ranking system for the avalanche of information one needs to get through to do this work each day. This helps you with the most important takeaway of the episode: scenario planning. Thinking about what could happen helps you prepare if it does happen.
This Episode’s Charity:
In the honor of Jacob’s parents, an endowment for First Generation American citizens has been established at Oxford College of Emory University. Please donate here.
Jacob and Chase raised $20 for charity this week!
Referenced in the Show:
Cognitive Dissidents (Soon The Jacob Shapiro Podcast): Depreciable Line of Information
Movie: Three Days of the Condor
Jacob’s Book Recommendations: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]
Book 3: The Tao Jones Averages
Where You Can Find Jacob:
Jacob’s X : https://x.com/JacobShap
Jacob’s Work : Cognitive.Investments
Podcast : Cognitive Dissidents
Jacob’s Website : jacobshapiro.com
“...and I’ve done all the work and I have a gut feeling, like usually when all those things come together, that’s a good sign for me because I’ve been doing this long enough to know the difference between when I’m clinging to something, or when I’m being lazy. Versus no, like something here is right. So I wouldn’t dismiss, gut intuition there when it comes to this sort of stuff.”
